Battery-Electric vs. Hydrogen: Modeling the decarbonization pathways and environmental trade-offs of global road freight

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2026

Road freight accounts for 40% of global transport CO2 emissions and is a major source of urban air pollution. This study aims to explore future role of battery-electric and hydrogen technologies for different truck segments considering driving choice, payload, and cost development, and environmental implications of this transition. The study uses novel integrated global energy systems modeling and life cycle assessment capturing truck energy transition considering cross-sectoral resource availability and systematic sensitivity of technology adoption to cost-learning rates. The results show that battery-electric trucks will dominate road freight, mainly regional delivery, reaching 70% of total transport work by 2050 in ambitious climate scenarios, leveraging superior efficiency, whereas hydrogen use is only 10% of total transport work, limited to long-haul operations. Hydrogen is most cost-effectively used in complement with batteries using fuel cell range extended electric vehicles where operational cost balances with the high investment cost of batteries. Road freight decarbonization is delayed by power sector decarbonization, indicating renewable electricity expansion as a critical enabler. Zero emission vehicles have 10% slower adoption under current national commitment compared to the more ambitious climate scenario. This indicates the need for direct policy support for road freight decarbonization linked to power sector planning. Rapid decline in battery cost shows 10% increase in battery-electric vehicle adoption and decreases the role of hydrogen in road freight decarbonization. The transition comes with environmental co-benefits, including about 75% reduction of particulate matter formation, acidification, and eutrophication. Environmental tradeoffs include metals and mineral depletion as well as land use.