Target-based energy transitions in the electricity systems of Southeast Asia: A comparative study of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2026

Three emerging Southeast Asian economies, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, exhibit similar socio-economic development and reliance on coal for electricity generation. Yet, the countries have set different energy targets, indicating different energy transition pathways. This study aims to understand what kinds of energy transitions are implied by these targets and how these targets may lead to different transitions in electricity systems by analysing electricity mix evolution and decarbonisation pathways across the case countries. A decarbonisation pathway framework is applied to account for the decline of fossil fuels and the growth of low-carbon sources in the analysis. Initially used for analysing historical data, the framework is applied to target data of emerging economies by complementing it with target interpolation and scenario construction. Target interpolation is functions are used to generate annual projection data, while scenario construction is functions are used to explore future pathways indicated by countries’ targets and policies. Our results show heterogeneity in decarbonisation pathways among the case countries despite their similar levels of economic development and geographic locations. The analysis also highlights the crucial role of rapidly growing demand, as increased renewable energy deployment does not necessarily lead to decarbonisation of electricity systems. This study offers methodological contributions by expanding framework applicability to future target data of emerging economies. It also provides theoretical contributions in understanding transition dynamics under growing electricity demand and policy implications for energy planning in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, with potential applicability to other emerging economies with similar conditions.