Evolving perceptions of drought risk and management: Insights from a repeated survey of Swedish municipalities

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2026

As societies face increasingly unpredictable climates, drought management plays an important role in resilience. Meanwhile, drought perceptions influence agenda-setting processes among local authorities. This repeated cross-sectional survey study in Sweden investigated municipalities’ perceptions of the 2017, 2018 and 2022 droughts, future drought risk, and management practices. The share of municipalities reporting a drought plan increased from 14 % in 2018 to 24 % after 2022. Similarly, the share reporting no operational drought definition declined from 81 % to 51 % (p < 0.05). However, 58 % still reported no drought plan after 2022, and scientific drought typologies and terminology were rarely used. Across all drought years, municipalities rated management higher than preparedness, indicating stronger perceived capacity to respond to ongoing events than to prepare for future droughts. Municipalities perceived the 2022 drought as significantly less severe and less impactful than the 2018 drought (p < 0.05). Perceived drought severity in 2022 was not positively associated with SPI3 or SPI6 meteorological drought conditions across municipalities. Perceived future drought risk was significantly lower after 2022 than in 2018 (p < 0.05). More severe drought conditions in 2018 were associated with higher drought risk perceptions after 2022 among northern municipalities, but not across Sweden as a whole. The results show that formal drought preparedness remains limited and that municipal risk perceptions do not consistently reflect meteorological drought indicators. Strengthening proactive preparedness requires institutionalized drought plans, operational definitions, and monitoring approaches aligned with local perceptions and realities, including locally relevant impacts, exposure pathways, and municipal responsibilities.