Re-accelerating wind power in Europe: growth pulses, turning points, cruising speed and their policy drivers

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2026

Non-Technical Summary European climate plans call for a doubling of onshore wind capacity by 2030, yet over the last fifteen years growth has largely stagnated — contradicting technology diffusion theories that predict smooth acceleration until a substantial share of the market is reached. We show that early slowdowns in large countries were associated with the withdrawal or weakening of policy support, while reinstating support and higher electricity prices drove re-accelerations. Despite these pulses, the average deployment pace remained steady and below the first peak rate. Current targets aim for historically peak speeds, but forecasts revert to long-run rates, suggesting persistent limits that only sustained policy effort can overcome. Technical Summary Mainstream theories predict S-shaped technology growth with a single peak followed by slowdown, but recent literature has observed low-carbon technologies often departing from this pattern. We systematically show that over four decades, onshore wind trajectories in 16 of 18 largest EU countries have strongly deviated from S-curve expectations. Initial acceleration ended at just 2% of capacity potential (IQR 1–4%) or 4% of electricity (1.5–6%), coinciding with the withdrawal or weakening of policy support. In 13 countries, the first slowdown was followed by secondary and sometimes tertiary re-acceleration forming distinct growth pulses, with peak growth rates at subsequent pulses statistically similar to the first. Pre-2021 re-acceleration closely followed the reinstating or introduction of support schemes, while several post-2020 pulses were likely driven by better market conditions. Over the full period, the cruising speed — average additions after the first peak — was about one-quarter below the peak rate. National 2030 targets require growth close to historical peaks, yet the latest forecasts converge on the cruising speed. Germany is the sole outlier, consistent with unprecedented institutional reforms beyond financial incentives. Our multi-segment growth model, combined with growth metrics and policy mapping, can be extended to other policy-driven technologies. Social Media Summary Policy-driven technologies grow in pulses, not S-curves. Despite higher 2030 targets, EU wind expands at unchanged speed.