Changes, attributions and uncertainties of global ecosystem resilience

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2026

Ecosystem resilience is a key indicator of proximity to tipping points in terrestrial ecosystems, with declining resilience generally reflecting a heightened risk of abrupt transitions between ecosystem states. However, quantitative assessments of resilience change remain highly uncertain, owing to the inherently multidimensional nature of ecosystem resilience, as well as inconsistencies among assessment methodologies and ecosystem state variables used to infer resilience change. By synthesizing core ecosystem resilience concepts and evaluating multiple indicators and satellite-based vegetation state variables within established theoretical frameworks, we reveal substantial inconsistencies in inferred resilience trends: 59.6% and 42.8% of pixels show disagreement under the frameworks of critical slowing down and flickering, respectively, and 69.3% of show inconsistent trends across four satellite-based vegetation state variables (EVI, CSIF, LAI and kNDVI). Integrating dynamic global vegetation model simulations with observations further identifies climate change as the dominant driver of global ecosystem resilience changes, with temperature playing a key role. Together, these findings indicate that under ongoing global warming, neglecting conceptual differences in resilience and inconsistencies in representing critical transitions can lead to systematic misinterpretation of ecosystem stability and tipping-point risks, underscoring the urgent need for ecosystem-specific resilience assessment.