E-Model

Research Project, 2022 – 2025

The literature on traffic safety consistently reports that human behavior is the main cause of crashes. This is not surprising considering the immense number of crashes that humans prevent continuously by skillfully operating their vehicles in relation to the expected behavior of other road users. When vehicles change and behaviors are less predictable, safety is at stake. The recent rise of new micromobility solutions possibly suffers from this very specific issue and has been associated with an increase in crashes in Sweden and worldwide. Today, we do not know if the unacceptable increase in e-scooters crashes depends on the human, the vehicle, or the infrastructure. Most likely, it stems from a combination of all three.

This project will be the first step to modeling how e-scooters and e-scooterists behave individually and as an interconnected system. It is worth noting that while human models may describe a strategic/tactical level of riding, an operational level of the interconnected system also requires a model of the vehicle. Behavioral and two-wheel vehicle models are rarely studied combined due to the difference in the expertise required to develop such models; both models require competencies in control engineering, while vehicle modeling requires unique expertise in vehicle dynamics, and rider modeling relies on knowledge of cognitive sciences. Further, only recently, naturalistic and field data have become of sufficient quality and quantity to support such an effort for e-scooters/e-scooterists.

As a result, the E-Model project will generate models of e-scooters as well as their riders at an operational level and validate them through data collected in the real world, in naturalistic conditions. The mathematical models, such as controlling the handlebar in a turn, will be a key component in understanding how safety measures and legislations can be implemented: the models will show how an e-scooter differs from a bicycle and will therefore support the development of current legislation which treat e-scooters and ordinary bicycles in the same way. The mathematical models will also shed light on how the interconnected system e-scooter-rider behaves in the current traffic environment, proposing changes to the road infrastructure to make it safer. Close collaboration with the relevant authority (Transportstyrelsen and Göteborgs Stad) will be present throughout the project to facilitate our model to impact the legal requirements and regulations for micromobility in Sweden.