Consumption-based scenarios and climate policy analyses for Sweden – direct and secondary effects of lifestyle changes for the energy transition

Research Project, 2023 – 2026

Scenario analyses of climate action tend to focus on supply-side measures and overlook demand-side mitigation opportunities, including lifestyle changes. This project aims to develop pathways to reach net-zero consumption-based climate emissions and a renewable energy system. The project uses consumption patterns for different household groups (income level, residence, and environmental awareness) to develop national scenarios corresponding to the IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

Consumption patterns and an energy systems model enable quantifications of the effects of different measures on the energy system, such as Fit-for-55 and novel technologies such as flexible heating, on household spending and carbon footprints, and captures rebound effects from lifestyle changes.

The project outcome is expected to be useful for Swedish climate policy design and is realized in close collaboration with stakeholders from industry as well as the green tech company Svalna.