Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime
Journal article, 2015
This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to population and economic assumptions. We simulate a climate regime, based on long-term convergence of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, starting from the emission pledges presented in the Copenhagen Accord to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and allowing full emissions trading between countries. Under the climate regime, Indian emission allowances are allowed to grow more than the Chinese allowances, due to the per capita convergence rule and the higher population growth in India. Economic and energy implications not only differ among the two countries, but also across model types. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. The reduction in carbon intensity is mostly achieved through deployment of carbon capture and storage, renewable energy sources and nuclear energy. The economic impacts are generally higher in China than in India, due to higher 2010–2050 cumulative abatement in China and the fact that India can offset more of its abatement cost though international emission trading.
Author
Daniel Johansson
Chalmers, Energy and Environment, Physical Resource Theory
Paul L. Lucas
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Matthias Weitzel
Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel
Erik Ahlgren
Chalmers, Energy and Environment, Energy Technology
A. B Bazaz
IIMA (Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad)
Wenying Chen
Tsinghua University
M.G.J den Elzen
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Joydeep Ghosh
University of Delhi
Maria Grahn
Chalmers, Energy and Environment, Physical Resource Theory
Qiao-Mei Liang
Beijing Institute of Technology
Sonja Peterson
Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel
Basanta K. Pradhan
University of Delhi
Bas J. van Ruijven
National Center for Atmospheric Research
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Priyadarshi Ramprasad Shukla
IIMA (Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad)
D. van Duuren
Utrecht University
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Yi-Ming Wei
Beijing Institute of Technology
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
1381-2386 (ISSN) 1573-1596 (eISSN)
Vol. 20 8 1335-1359Policy Options to engage Emerging Asian economies in a post-Kyoto regime (POEM)
European Commission (EC) (EC/FP7/226282), 2010-01-01 -- 2014-11-30.
Driving Forces
Sustainable development
Areas of Advance
Energy
Subject Categories
Energy Systems
DOI
10.1007/s11027-014-9549-4