Exploring the advantages of a multi-year-adaptive approach on cost-optimal long-term mini-grid design under different demand evolution scenarios

Journal article, 2025

Mini-grids are essential for rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa, but due to uncertainty about future demand evolution in non-electrified communities, cost-optimal long-term sizing and design is particularly difficult. Standard, non-adaptive design approaches single-year and multi-year, are highly susceptible to demand evolution uncertainties. Despite potentially great advantages there is a lack of studies investigating adaptive design approaches. Thus, this study, using particle swarm optimization, explores the advantages of a multi-year-adaptive approach on cost-optimal long-term solar PV mini-grid component sizing under three demand evolution scenarios, considering the impacts of load flexibility, varying discount rates, and potential future mini-grid component cost reductions. The results show that the multi-year-adaptive approach helps to manage demand evolution challenges. It leads to significant cost-savings, up to three-quarters, in higher demand evolution scenarios, compared to multi-year and single-year approaches. These cost-savings increase with load flexibility (up to 4 % with 10 % flexibility), higher discount rates (up to 9.4 % with rates from 7 % to 20 %), and component cost reductions (up to 3.6 % per 1 % reduction). The study demonstrates how an adaptive approach can be utilized to optimize mini-grid component sizing and enhance cost efficiency.