A semi-empirical framework for assessing the impact of biofouling on ship powering in tropical waters

Journal article, 2026

One of the factors that hinders vessel operational efficiency is hull fouling, especially in tropical waters where biofouling is prevalent and high water temperatures persist year-round. Accurately predicting and managing the impact of biofouling on ship performance is critical, but there is a lack of research on methodologies that can easily provide the impact of hull fouling growth and maintenance on ship performance under various conditions in tropical regions. This study develops a novel semi-empirical framework for predicting performance changes due to hull fouling of ships operating in tropical waters. This framework incorporates modules that predict hull roughness changes, which are based on field testing of marine coatings in tropical waters, as well as comprehensive ship resistance and propulsion performance, and the impact of maintenance. Through simulations of various operational and management scenarios, the proposed framework demonstrated its capability to quantitatively predict hull roughness changes, associated energy penalty, and resulting carbon intensity indicator and to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of different strategies. Importantly, the proposed framework is applied within a scenario-based analysis to explore potential impacts of hull biofouling on ship powering and CII performance in tropical waters, rather than serving as a fully validated predictive model. In conclusion, the developed framework is expected to serve as a practical decision-support tool for ship operators in selecting optimal antifouling coatings and establishing effective hull maintenance plans, thereby enhancing energy efficiency and reducing emissions.