Future air quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2012
In order to explore future air quality in Europe at the 2030 horizon, two emission scenarios developed in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment including varying assumptions on climate and energy access policies are investigated with an ensemble of six regional and global atmospheric chemistry transport models. A specific focus is given in the paper to the assessment of uncertainties and robustness of the projected changes in air quality. The present work relies on an ensemble of chemistry transport models giving insight into the model spread. Both regional and global scale models were involved, so that the ensemble benefits from medium-resolution approaches as well as global models that capture long-range transport. For each scenario a whole decade is modelled in order to gain statistical confidence in the results. A statistical downscaling approach is used to correct the distribution of the modelled projection. Last, the modelling experiment is related to a hind-cast study published earlier, where the performances of all participating models were extensively documented. The analysis is presented in an exposure-based framework in order to discuss policy relevant changes. According to the emission projections, ozone precursors such as NOx will drop down to 30% to 50% of their current levels, depending on the scenario. As a result, annual mean O-3 will slightly increase in NOx saturated areas but the overall O-3 burden will decrease substantially. Exposure to detrimental O-3 levels for health (SOMO35) will be reduced down to 45% to 70% of their current levels. And the fraction of stations where present-day exceedences of daily maximum O-3 is higher than 120 mu g m(-3) more than 25 days per year will drop from 43% down to 2 to 8 %. We conclude that air pollution mitigation measures (present in both scenarios) are the main factors leading to the improvement, but an additional cobenefit of at least 40% (depending on the indicator) is brought about by the climate policy.
simulations
climate-change
precipitation
impact
ensemble
variability
transport model
greenhouse-gas emissions
tropospheric ozone
biomass burning emissions
Författare
A. Colette
Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)
C. Granier
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
University of Colorado
Max-Planck-Gesellschaft
Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC)
O. Hodnebrog
Cicero Senter for klimaforskning
Universitetet i Oslo
H. Jakobs
FRIUUK
A. Maurizi
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna
A. Nyiri
Meteorologisk institutt
S. Rao
Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse
M. Amann
Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse
B. Bessagnet
Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)
A. D'Angiola
Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC)
M. Gauss
Meteorologisk institutt
C. Heyes
Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse
Z. Klimont
Internationales Institut fuer Angewandte Systemanalyse
F. Meleux
Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)
M. Memmesheimer
FRIUUK
A. Mieville
Laboratoire dAerologie UMR 5560
L. Rouil
Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)
F. Russo
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna
S. Schucht
Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)
David Simpson
Chalmers, Rymd- och geovetenskap, Global miljömätteknik
F. Stordal
Universitetet i Oslo
F. Tampieri
ENEA
M. Vrac
Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
1680-7316 (ISSN) 1680-7324 (eISSN)
Vol. 12 21 10613-10630ModElling the Regional and Global Earth system (MERGE)
Lunds universitet (9945095), 2010-01-01 -- .
Ämneskategorier (SSIF 2011)
Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning
DOI
10.5194/acp-12-10613-2012