Future air quality in Europe: a multi-model assessment of projected exposure to ozone
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2012

In order to explore future air quality in Europe at the 2030 horizon, two emission scenarios developed in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment including varying assumptions on climate and energy access policies are investigated with an ensemble of six regional and global atmospheric chemistry transport models. A specific focus is given in the paper to the assessment of uncertainties and robustness of the projected changes in air quality. The present work relies on an ensemble of chemistry transport models giving insight into the model spread. Both regional and global scale models were involved, so that the ensemble benefits from medium-resolution approaches as well as global models that capture long-range transport. For each scenario a whole decade is modelled in order to gain statistical confidence in the results. A statistical downscaling approach is used to correct the distribution of the modelled projection. Last, the modelling experiment is related to a hind-cast study published earlier, where the performances of all participating models were extensively documented. The analysis is presented in an exposure-based framework in order to discuss policy relevant changes. According to the emission projections, ozone precursors such as NOx will drop down to 30% to 50% of their current levels, depending on the scenario. As a result, annual mean O-3 will slightly increase in NOx saturated areas but the overall O-3 burden will decrease substantially. Exposure to detrimental O-3 levels for health (SOMO35) will be reduced down to 45% to 70% of their current levels. And the fraction of stations where present-day exceedences of daily maximum O-3 is higher than 120 mu g m(-3) more than 25 days per year will drop from 43% down to 2 to 8 %. We conclude that air pollution mitigation measures (present in both scenarios) are the main factors leading to the improvement, but an additional cobenefit of at least 40% (depending on the indicator) is brought about by the climate policy.

biomass burning emissions

impact

simulations

ensemble

variability

tropospheric ozone

greenhouse-gas emissions

transport model

precipitation

climate-change

Författare

A. Colette

Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)

C. Granier

Max Planck-institutet

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC)

University of Colorado at Boulder

O. Hodnebrog

Cicero Senter for klimaforskning

Universitetet i Oslo

H. Jakobs

FRIUUK

A. Maurizi

Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna

A. Nyiri

Meteorologisk institutt

S. Rao

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

M. Amann

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

B. Bessagnet

Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)

A. D'Angiola

Université Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC)

M. Gauss

Meteorologisk institutt

C. Heyes

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Z. Klimont

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

F. Meleux

Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)

M. Memmesheimer

FRIUUK

A. Mieville

Laboratoire dAerologie UMR 5560

L. Rouil

Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)

F. Russo

Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna

S. Schucht

Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS)

David Simpson

Chalmers, Rymd- och geovetenskap, Global miljömätteknik och modellering

F. Stordal

Universitetet i Oslo

F. Tampieri

ENEA Centro Ricerche Bologna

M. Vrac

Universite de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

1680-7316 (ISSN) 1680-7324 (eISSN)

Vol. 12 21 10613-10630

Ämneskategorier

Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning

DOI

10.5194/acp-12-10613-2012