Selecting software reliability growth models and improving their predictive accuracy using historical projects data
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2014

During software development two important decisions organizations have to make are: how to allocate testing resources optimally and when the software is ready for release. SRGMs (software reliability growth models) provide empirical basis for evaluating and predicting reliability of software systems. When using SRGMs for the purpose of optimizing testing resource allocation, the model's ability to accurately predict the expected defect inflow profile is useful. For assessing release readiness, the asymptote accuracy is the most important attribute. Although more than hundred models for software reliability have been proposed and evaluated over time, there exists no clear guide on which models should be used for a given software development process or for a given industrial domain. Using defect inflow profiles from large software projects from Ericsson, Volvo Car Corporation and Saab, we evaluate commonly used SRGMs for their ability to provide empirical basis for making these decisions. We also demonstrate that using defect intensity growth rate from earlier projects increases the accuracy of the predictions. Our results show that Logistic and Gompertz models are the most accurate models; we further observe that classifying a given project based on its expected shape of defect inflow help to select the most appropriate model. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Defect inflow

Software Engineering


Computer Science

Computer Science


Software reliability growth models

Embedded software


Rakesh Rana

Göteborgs universitet

Miroslaw Staron

Göteborgs universitet

Christian Berger

Göteborgs universitet

Jörgen Hansson

Chalmers, Data- och informationsteknik, Software Engineering

M. Nilsson

Volvo Cars

Fredrik Törner

Volvo Cars

Wilhelm Meding

Ericsson AB

Christoffer Höglund


Journal of Systems and Software

0164-1212 (ISSN)

Vol. 98 59-78


Elektroteknik och elektronik



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