Using system dynamics for long term bottom-up electric load modeling in rural electrification
Paper i proceeding, 2016

One billion people lack access to electricity, most of whom live in rural areas in developing countries. A solution to improve their situation is small independent grids, so called minigrids. One of the major challenges for minigrids is to become economically reliable. As electricity usage is a major source of income for a utility, it is important to consider how its fluctuations impacts a utility. This work presents an integration of a previously developed system dynamics model with a comparably detailed bottom-up load model developed in MATLAB. The simulations show that while using a more detailed load model results in an increase in generation capacity expansion frequency and that the investments are made in smaller sizes. Due to the different approach to integrating electricity usage growth, the bottom-up load model shows a faster increase in electricity usage than the system dynamics load model. With a modeled difference on net income, power utilization rate and electricity usage the results indicate that it is important to consider improved load model detail when modeling income and expenditures of an electric utility.


rural electrification

bottom-up load modeling

system dynamics


Elias Hartvigsson

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Elkraftteknik

Jimmy Ehnberg

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Elkraftteknik

Erik Ahlgren

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Energiteknik

Sverker Molander

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Environmental Systems Analysis

International System Dynamics Conference


Hållbar utveckling



Elektroteknik och elektronik



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