Batteries at Crossroads: Past, Present, and Future Environmental Impacts of Lithium-ion Batteries

Doktorsavhandling, 2025

The global transition toward electric mobility is driving rapid growth in LIB production, with global capacity expected to more than triple between 2025 and 2030. This expansion raises critical questions about the environmental implications of large-scale manufacturing and the supply chains that sustain it. The central aim of this thesis is to apply life cycle assessment (LCA) to systematically evaluate these implications, with particular focus on production scale, the role of primary and recycled materials, and the influence of modeling choices on assessment outcomes.

The analysis begins by comparing LIB production across stages of technological maturity. Results show that scaling up can substantially reduce impacts per unit of capacity, largely through improved process efficiencies and economies of scale. These benefits, however, are accompanied by new burdens at the production site, including higher emissions, chemical use, and wastewater treatment requirements. When industrial-scale production is powered by low-carbon electricity, environmental hotspots shift upstream to raw material extraction and processing. An assessment of battery relevant raw materials reveals wide variability in environmental impacts, shaped by ore grade, extraction methods, and geographic supply configurations. This heterogeneity underscores the need for source-specific data in LCA studies, or, when unavailable, a broader spectrum of data to represent uncertainty. The thesis also investigates end-of-life strategies, with emphasis on hydrometallurgical recycling as a closed-loop pathway. Recycling can avoid up to 90% of the climate impacts associated with recyclable materials. Additional strategies – such as reducing scrap rates, increasing recovery of active materials, and optimizing chemical use – are shown to further enhance these benefits. Beyond the technological findings, the thesis highlights the methodological importance of modeling choices. Top-down approaches capture system-wide interactions, whereas bottom-up models offer process-level detail but may overlook broader dynamics. Likewise, differences between background databases, and their periodic updates, can alter results significantly, making reassessment essential.

Three lessons emerge: (i) production scale strongly influences environmental outcomes; (ii) raw material supply is heterogeneous and context-dependent; and (iii) modeling choices shape results. Viewed through the lens of past, present, and future, the thesis shows that past studies were constrained by unrepresentative data, present results reflect supply-chain and design variability, and future impacts may rise with reliance on low-grade ores. LIBs thus stand at a crossroads: indispensable for a low-carbon transition, yet demanding continuous reassessment of their environmental performance.