Heating System Transitions in Cities: From Participatory Insights to Network Details in Spatially Resolved Energy Systems Modeling
Doktorsavhandling, 2025
Decarbonisation of heating in buildings is an important component of the European energy transition. While EU, national and regional policies set overarching targets, the planning and implementation of low-carbon heating solutions takes place largely at the municipal level, where supply and demand are shaped by localised spatial and infrastructural conditions. Yet, most energy system models and transition strategies treat the local spatial dimension only superficially, typically overlooking variations in building density, network coverage, infrastructure age, and proximity to local resources. These variations can decisively influence the cost-effectiveness and feasibility of heating technologies. Addressing heat planning at the municipal level allows for strategies tailored to these local spatial conditions and aligned with the practical realities faced by planners and decision-makers. This thesis develops and applies two methodological approaches for investigating municipal heating system transitions: a spatially explicit participatory modelling framework and a high-resolution techno-economic city energy system optimisation model. Together, these methods enable a multi-layered analysis of how spatial context, infrastructure conditions, and local resource availability shape cost-effective and sustainable heating transitions.
The participatory modelling methodology, tested in urban and semi-rural Danish municipalities, consists of five steps. Step 1 Reviewing planning processes; Step 2 Inclusion of spatial features; Step 3 Scenario formulation; Step 4 Energy systems modelling; and Step 5 Evaluation of modelling outcomes. While stakeholders were engaged throughout the process, their participation was particularly critical in Steps 2 and 3, providing locally grounded definitions of spatial boundaries, technology scope, and planning priorities. This ensured that scenarios were aligned with institutional realities and local acceptability, while still enabling technically rigorous analysis. In the urban case, expanding district heating (DH) and using waste incineration heat until carbon neutrality proved cost-efficient, with late-stage power-to-heat investments dependent on carbon-free electricity. In the semi-rural case, using excess heat from local sources supported cost-effective DH expansion while biogas substitution for natural gas was not competitive.
The city-scale optimisation model, applied to Gothenburg, Sweden, integrates high spatial and temporal resolution, and explicit representation of DH networks and electricity system. It examines how DH network refurbishment strategies and waste heat (WH) availability influence long-term system performance under carbon neutrality constraints. The results show that abundant, low-cost WH can stabilise DH’s role in the heating mix, while reduced or spatially concentrated WH availability leads to increased adoption of individual heat pumps. Refurbishment costs are generally a small share of total system costs, but their impact varies substantially across nodes depending on infrastructure age, demand density, and supply source proximity.
Across both methods and case studies, the findings demonstrate that spatial heterogeneity is a determining factor in cost-optimal heating strategies. The integration of stakeholder perspectives ensures that technical results are not only spatially detailed but also institutionally relevant, bridging the gap between techno-economic optimisation and practical municipal planning. This thesis concludes that achieving cost-effective and sustainable heating transitions requires approaches that integrate spatial detail, infrastructure dynamics, and local institutional knowledge. Strategies must be spatially differentiated, resilient to resource uncertainty, and informed by both technical analysis and stakeholder priorities. With the participatory and technically detailed modelling, this work provide a basis for developing framworks for municipalities to design heating transitions that are both technically viable and grounded in the realities of local governance and infrastructure.
The participatory modelling methodology, tested in urban and semi-rural Danish municipalities, consists of five steps. Step 1 Reviewing planning processes; Step 2 Inclusion of spatial features; Step 3 Scenario formulation; Step 4 Energy systems modelling; and Step 5 Evaluation of modelling outcomes. While stakeholders were engaged throughout the process, their participation was particularly critical in Steps 2 and 3, providing locally grounded definitions of spatial boundaries, technology scope, and planning priorities. This ensured that scenarios were aligned with institutional realities and local acceptability, while still enabling technically rigorous analysis. In the urban case, expanding district heating (DH) and using waste incineration heat until carbon neutrality proved cost-efficient, with late-stage power-to-heat investments dependent on carbon-free electricity. In the semi-rural case, using excess heat from local sources supported cost-effective DH expansion while biogas substitution for natural gas was not competitive.
The city-scale optimisation model, applied to Gothenburg, Sweden, integrates high spatial and temporal resolution, and explicit representation of DH networks and electricity system. It examines how DH network refurbishment strategies and waste heat (WH) availability influence long-term system performance under carbon neutrality constraints. The results show that abundant, low-cost WH can stabilise DH’s role in the heating mix, while reduced or spatially concentrated WH availability leads to increased adoption of individual heat pumps. Refurbishment costs are generally a small share of total system costs, but their impact varies substantially across nodes depending on infrastructure age, demand density, and supply source proximity.
Across both methods and case studies, the findings demonstrate that spatial heterogeneity is a determining factor in cost-optimal heating strategies. The integration of stakeholder perspectives ensures that technical results are not only spatially detailed but also institutionally relevant, bridging the gap between techno-economic optimisation and practical municipal planning. This thesis concludes that achieving cost-effective and sustainable heating transitions requires approaches that integrate spatial detail, infrastructure dynamics, and local institutional knowledge. Strategies must be spatially differentiated, resilient to resource uncertainty, and informed by both technical analysis and stakeholder priorities. With the participatory and technically detailed modelling, this work provide a basis for developing framworks for municipalities to design heating transitions that are both technically viable and grounded in the realities of local governance and infrastructure.
Optimization
Waste heat
Participatory modeling
Urban heating transitions
District heating
Energy systems modeling
Heat decarbonization
Spatially explicit modeling
Författare
Hyunkyo Yu
Chalmers, Rymd-, geo- och miljövetenskap, Energiteknik
Integrating the urban planning process into energy systems models for future urban heating system planning: A participatory approach
Energy Reports,;Vol. 7(2021)p. 158-166
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
Enhancing Urban Heating Systems Planning through Spatially Explicit Participatory Modeling
Energies,;Vol. 16(2023)
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
Combining techno-economic modeling and spatial analysis for heat planning in rural regions: A case study of the Holbæk municipality in Denmark
Smart Energy,;Vol. 14(2024)
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
Yu, H., Göransson, L., Johnsson, F. Modeling of Future District Heating: Waste Heat and Network Refurbishment Dynamics
How can cities heat their homes and buildings in a future where fossil fuels are phased out and renewable energy dominates? This thesis investigates this question by focusing on three Nordic municipalities in Sweden and Denmark, where district heating (DH) is a key part of the urban energy system. District heating is a collective heating system where heat is produced in large units, such as waste incineration, industrial waste heat, or heat pumps, and distributed through pipes to households and businesses. In parallel, this thesis also examines individual heating solutions, such as building-level heat pumps and boilers.
The future of heating systems is uncertain. On one hand, DH offers an efficient way to supply dense urban areas with collective heat. On the other hand, much of today’s infrastructure is aging, and changes in energy supply, such as reduced availability of industrial waste heat or higher competition for biomass, create new challenges. At the same time, individual heating technologies, such as building-level heat pumps, are becoming increasingly attractive alternatives or complements to DH. This thesis explores how cities can plan long-term heating solutions that are both cost-effective and sustainable, balancing the roles of collective networks and individual systems.
To address these questions, this thesis applies a techno-economic optimization model of city energy systems. Two complementary approaches were developed, one that combines modeling with stakeholder engagement to capture local perspectives and planning realities, and another that incorporates detailed representations of DH networks to analyze infrastructure reinvestment and refurbishment needs. These approaches make it possible to explore different scenarios to assess their economic, technical, and spatial implications.
The results show that spatial factors, such as the location of heat demand, the availability of waste heat, and the conditions of district heating networks, are crucial for identifying viable heating solutions. The work also demonstrates that involving local stakeholders provides essential knowledge about local conditions and institutional priorities, helping to make modeling results more relevant and actionable. In addition, the analysis highlights the importance of long-term infrastructure strategies, including when and where to refurbish, expand, or downsize DH networks. Finally, this work highlights that city-level planning is essential for the energy transition. National strategies provide direction, but each city has unique characteristics that determine which heating solutions will work best. By integrating spatial analysis, technical modeling, and local knowledge, cities can make more credible and actionable plans for heating in a renewable future.
The future of heating systems is uncertain. On one hand, DH offers an efficient way to supply dense urban areas with collective heat. On the other hand, much of today’s infrastructure is aging, and changes in energy supply, such as reduced availability of industrial waste heat or higher competition for biomass, create new challenges. At the same time, individual heating technologies, such as building-level heat pumps, are becoming increasingly attractive alternatives or complements to DH. This thesis explores how cities can plan long-term heating solutions that are both cost-effective and sustainable, balancing the roles of collective networks and individual systems.
To address these questions, this thesis applies a techno-economic optimization model of city energy systems. Two complementary approaches were developed, one that combines modeling with stakeholder engagement to capture local perspectives and planning realities, and another that incorporates detailed representations of DH networks to analyze infrastructure reinvestment and refurbishment needs. These approaches make it possible to explore different scenarios to assess their economic, technical, and spatial implications.
The results show that spatial factors, such as the location of heat demand, the availability of waste heat, and the conditions of district heating networks, are crucial for identifying viable heating solutions. The work also demonstrates that involving local stakeholders provides essential knowledge about local conditions and institutional priorities, helping to make modeling results more relevant and actionable. In addition, the analysis highlights the importance of long-term infrastructure strategies, including when and where to refurbish, expand, or downsize DH networks. Finally, this work highlights that city-level planning is essential for the energy transition. National strategies provide direction, but each city has unique characteristics that determine which heating solutions will work best. By integrating spatial analysis, technical modeling, and local knowledge, cities can make more credible and actionable plans for heating in a renewable future.
MISTRA Electrification
Stiftelsen för miljöstrategisk forskning (Mistra), 2021-06-01 -- 2025-05-31.
FlexSUS-Flexibility för Smarta Urbana EnergiSystem
Energimyndigheten (47809-1), 2019-09-01 -- 2022-12-15.
Styrkeområden
Energi
Ämneskategorier (SSIF 2025)
Energiteknik
Energisystem
ISBN
978-91-8103-284-0
Doktorsavhandlingar vid Chalmers tekniska högskola. Ny serie: 5742
Utgivare
Chalmers