Decarbonization in Carbon-Intensive Industries - Frameworks for Enhanced Early-Stage Identification of Optimal Decarbonization Pathways
Doktorsavhandling, 2025
Carbon-intensive industries account for a quarter of global annual CO2 emissions. Achieving mandated climate targets requires rapid deployment of decarbonization technologies in these industries. Such deployment typically involves substantial upfront investments amidst technical, economic, and policy uncertainties. Consequently, careful selection of decarbonization technologies or a combination thereof, coupled with measures such as process electrification and energy efficiency, is crucial.
This thesis presents limitations in existing methodological approaches for comparing decarbonization pathways, spanning systems-, plant-, and site-level considerations. A generalized assessment framework was developed that addresses these limitations, with individual methodological frameworks developed in the appended papers. At the system level, extended boundaries and exergy as a metric were used to compare two CO2 capture technologies with inherently different heat and electricity demands per unit of CO2 captured, considering the perspectives of both plant owners and end-users. At the plant level, an iterative exergy-pinch analysis, combined with techno-economic analysis, was developed to identify promising process modifications in unabated process plants that maximize overall exergy utilization and CO2 avoidance, leading to successive designs towards net-zero emissions. At the site level, a site-specific techno-economic analysis was developed by incorporating quantitative and qualitative site-specific factors expected to influence the choice of decarbonization technologies. Finally, to address deployment barriers for low-emissions hydrogen, an integrated system of complementary production technologies was evaluated using a generalized optimization framework, enabling cost-optimal supply strategies under site constraints and market uncertainties. The frameworks were demonstrated in case studies on bio-CHP in a district heating system, propane dehydrogenation, and a steam cracker plant.
The case study results show that integrating amine-based CO₂ capture with industrial heat pumps in bio-CHP plants could enable greater district heat delivery and provide product flexibility across heat, power, and CO₂ emissions. The iterative exergy-pinch analysis applied to the propane dehydrogenation plant identified an unconventional process modification, resulting in a substantial reduction in CO2 avoidance cost (58–70%) compared to CO2 capture from its highly diluted flue gas stream from the unmodified process. The site-specific techno-economic analysis revealed that incorporating site-specific cost factors yields higher avoidance cost estimates than standardized assessments, underscoring the risk of suboptimal technology selection. Finally, the integrated hydrogen production system demonstrated how combining multiple distinct production technologies can reduce costs, improve operational flexibility, and system redundancy. In summary, the generalized assessment framework, combining these individual framework methodologies, provides a comprehensive early-stage indication of the optimal decarbonization pathway for specific industrial sites.
This thesis presents limitations in existing methodological approaches for comparing decarbonization pathways, spanning systems-, plant-, and site-level considerations. A generalized assessment framework was developed that addresses these limitations, with individual methodological frameworks developed in the appended papers. At the system level, extended boundaries and exergy as a metric were used to compare two CO2 capture technologies with inherently different heat and electricity demands per unit of CO2 captured, considering the perspectives of both plant owners and end-users. At the plant level, an iterative exergy-pinch analysis, combined with techno-economic analysis, was developed to identify promising process modifications in unabated process plants that maximize overall exergy utilization and CO2 avoidance, leading to successive designs towards net-zero emissions. At the site level, a site-specific techno-economic analysis was developed by incorporating quantitative and qualitative site-specific factors expected to influence the choice of decarbonization technologies. Finally, to address deployment barriers for low-emissions hydrogen, an integrated system of complementary production technologies was evaluated using a generalized optimization framework, enabling cost-optimal supply strategies under site constraints and market uncertainties. The frameworks were demonstrated in case studies on bio-CHP in a district heating system, propane dehydrogenation, and a steam cracker plant.
The case study results show that integrating amine-based CO₂ capture with industrial heat pumps in bio-CHP plants could enable greater district heat delivery and provide product flexibility across heat, power, and CO₂ emissions. The iterative exergy-pinch analysis applied to the propane dehydrogenation plant identified an unconventional process modification, resulting in a substantial reduction in CO2 avoidance cost (58–70%) compared to CO2 capture from its highly diluted flue gas stream from the unmodified process. The site-specific techno-economic analysis revealed that incorporating site-specific cost factors yields higher avoidance cost estimates than standardized assessments, underscoring the risk of suboptimal technology selection. Finally, the integrated hydrogen production system demonstrated how combining multiple distinct production technologies can reduce costs, improve operational flexibility, and system redundancy. In summary, the generalized assessment framework, combining these individual framework methodologies, provides a comprehensive early-stage indication of the optimal decarbonization pathway for specific industrial sites.
Lecture hall Kemi-L42
Opponent: Prof. Andrea Ramírez Ramírez, Professor of Low Carbon Systems and Technologies, and Head of Department of Chemical Engineering, TU Delft, Netherlands
Författare
Tharun Roshan Kumar
Chalmers, Rymd-, geo- och miljövetenskap, Energiteknik
Plant and system-level performance of combined heat and power plants equipped with different carbon capture technologies
Applied Energy,;Vol. 338(2023)
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
Combining exergy-pinch and techno-economic analyses for identifying feasible decarbonization opportunities in carbon-intensive process industry: Case study of a propylene production technology
Energy Conversion and Management: X,;Vol. 25(2025)
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
Enhancing early-stage techno-economic comparative assessment with site-specific factors for decarbonization pathways in carbon-intensive process industry
Carbon Capture Science and Technology,;Vol. 14(2025)
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift
IV. Roshan Kumar, T.; Beiron, J.; Marthala, V.R.R.; Pettersson, L.; Harvey, S.; & Thunman, H. Strategies for large-scale deployment of low-emissions hydrogen for CO2 abatement in petrochemical clusters
Decarbonizing Industry: What, When, Where, and How?
In 2024, global average temperature increases exceeded the 1.5 °C threshold above pre-industrial levels for the first time. This underscores the need for rapid reductions in CO₂ emissions in carbon-intensive industries, which collectively account for approximately a quarter of global emissions. In these industries, achieving sustainable production of carbon-based fuels and materials requires eliminating direct emissions from combustion (decarbonization) and replacing fossil feedstock with alternatives such as CO₂, biomass, and waste (defossilization). Most near-term investments in transforming existing industrial assets through retrofits and the installation of emerging technologies will be first-of-a-kind, and are therefore expected to involve higher costs than later deployments. The upcoming investment cycles will be critical for carefully selecting and implementing decarbonization measures under uncertainty, and will ultimately decide whether industries can meet their emissions reduction targets while remaining competitive.
In this context, selecting appropriate measures and technologies often poses a paradox of choice, or in some cases a lack of choice, both of which can lead to decision paralysis. Many emerging low-carbon technologies remain unproven at an industrial scale and will require years of development before they can be commercialized. Depending on their technological maturity, such options may remain unavailable within the targeted deployment timeframe, thereby limiting their immediate role in reducing CO₂ emissions. In addition, the choice between mature and emerging technologies nearing commercialization also remains unclear, considering the risk of technology lock-in, the short time available for implementation, and various deployment barriers. The timing of their deployment will depend on the availability of resources such as low-cost renewable electricity, as well as access to critical infrastructure such as CO₂ transport and storage.
This thesis proposes new methodological frameworks to help identify the most cost-effective pathways for decarbonization and to provide guidance for real-world decisions as industries move toward net-zero or negative emissions. It explores how industries can navigate these challenges by examining near-term opportunities to retrofit existing sites, identifying the risks of technology lock-in, and highlighting the importance of adapting solutions to the realities of each site, including available space and access to critical infrastructure. Through the developed frameworks, optimal technology choices have been identified for bio-CHP plants, propane dehydrogenation, and a steam cracker plant, along with strategies for large-scale deployment of low-emissions hydrogen in petrochemical clusters.
In 2024, global average temperature increases exceeded the 1.5 °C threshold above pre-industrial levels for the first time. This underscores the need for rapid reductions in CO₂ emissions in carbon-intensive industries, which collectively account for approximately a quarter of global emissions. In these industries, achieving sustainable production of carbon-based fuels and materials requires eliminating direct emissions from combustion (decarbonization) and replacing fossil feedstock with alternatives such as CO₂, biomass, and waste (defossilization). Most near-term investments in transforming existing industrial assets through retrofits and the installation of emerging technologies will be first-of-a-kind, and are therefore expected to involve higher costs than later deployments. The upcoming investment cycles will be critical for carefully selecting and implementing decarbonization measures under uncertainty, and will ultimately decide whether industries can meet their emissions reduction targets while remaining competitive.
In this context, selecting appropriate measures and technologies often poses a paradox of choice, or in some cases a lack of choice, both of which can lead to decision paralysis. Many emerging low-carbon technologies remain unproven at an industrial scale and will require years of development before they can be commercialized. Depending on their technological maturity, such options may remain unavailable within the targeted deployment timeframe, thereby limiting their immediate role in reducing CO₂ emissions. In addition, the choice between mature and emerging technologies nearing commercialization also remains unclear, considering the risk of technology lock-in, the short time available for implementation, and various deployment barriers. The timing of their deployment will depend on the availability of resources such as low-cost renewable electricity, as well as access to critical infrastructure such as CO₂ transport and storage.
This thesis proposes new methodological frameworks to help identify the most cost-effective pathways for decarbonization and to provide guidance for real-world decisions as industries move toward net-zero or negative emissions. It explores how industries can navigate these challenges by examining near-term opportunities to retrofit existing sites, identifying the risks of technology lock-in, and highlighting the importance of adapting solutions to the realities of each site, including available space and access to critical infrastructure. Through the developed frameworks, optimal technology choices have been identified for bio-CHP plants, propane dehydrogenation, and a steam cracker plant, along with strategies for large-scale deployment of low-emissions hydrogen in petrochemical clusters.
Förstudie om möjlig pilotanläggning för högtemperaturelektrolys (SOEC) i Stenungsund
Lindholmen science park AB (3.12), 2024-03-01 -- 2024-09-30.
Transformativ omställning mot nettonegativa utsläpp inom svensk raffinaderi- och kemiindustri
Energimyndigheten (P2019-90070), 2020-07-01 -- 2025-06-30.
Ämneskategorier (SSIF 2025)
Annan naturresursteknik
Energiteknik
Energisystem
Styrkeområden
Energi
DOI
10.63959/chalmers.dt/5752
ISBN
978-91-8103-294-9
Doktorsavhandlingar vid Chalmers tekniska högskola. Ny serie: 5752
Utgivare
Chalmers
Lecture hall Kemi-L42
Opponent: Prof. Andrea Ramírez Ramírez, Professor of Low Carbon Systems and Technologies, and Head of Department of Chemical Engineering, TU Delft, Netherlands