Supply Potential and Cost of Residual Forest Biomass for New Industrial Applications in Sweden

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2026

This work investigates the potential for logging residues (branches and tops that can be extracted during roundwood harvesting) to replace fossil-based feedstocks and energy use in industry, using Sweden as a case study. National and regional supply–demand balances are calculated and costs for extraction and transportation of logging residues to current and future users are estimated. The results show that there is an excess of unutilized logging residues in northern Sweden (just below 10 TWh/y), while the supply potential is already utilized in the south. In southern Sweden, the use of logging residues for district heating is extensive, while simultaneously, the refinery industry is undergoing a transition to renewable feedstocks. This creates a gap between the regional supply and demand of around 15 TWh/year going into the future. Meanwhile, the middle and northern parts of Sweden could be largely self-sufficient and rely on regional logging residues to supply the estimated future biomass demands of around 9 TWh/y. Thus, a regional supply–demand imbalance can be expected in the future, where the excess resource is located in the north, while large demands are expected in the south. With current utilization patterns, the costs for logging residue extraction and transportation are around 50% higher in the north than in the south of Sweden, mainly attributable to the shorter transportation distances. To supply refineries with logging residue-based feedstock from northern Sweden, costs for transportation can be reduced by about 5–10 €/MWh utilizing distributed methanol synthesis before long-distance ship and train transportation. However, the transportation cost reduction is small compared to the cost of the methanol synthesis step, highlighting that the added value for the refinery of receiving methanol compared to chipped logging residues needs to make up the difference to motivate a supply chain based on distributed methanol synthesis.