Potential of single-family houses to reinforce resilience in a large scale power system during severe power deficit conditions

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2026

To estimate the potential to reinforce resilience in a power system under severe power deficit conditions, this study investigates the flexibility of space and water heating systems equipped with heat pumps in approximately one million single-family houses. The main contribution lies in the quantification of available power and corresponding duration of reduced power linked to the thermal comfort consequence of these resilience efforts. In this context, an integrated physics-based model is developed that involves a heat pump with space and water heating systems. For the power system with a dimensioning fault of 1.45 GW, the flexibility levels found range between 2.1 GW and 0.5 GW, at outdoor temperatures ranging between −10 °C and 10 °C respectively. An example result is that the power system can be relieved with 2.1 GW for 5 h and 0.8 GW for the next 12 h, with a consequence of the indoor and water temperatures dropping from 20 °C and 55 °C, to 15 °C and 44 °C, respectively at −10 °C outdoor temperature. Furthermore, the average electric power consumption increases to 2.9 GW during the recovery of indoor temperatures over 24 h. Finally, a modified Nordic-32 bus system with a large share of renewable power installations is proposed. In this system, the role of flexibility is demonstrated in limiting the instantaneous frequency deviation during the loss of a major generation. Thus, this study clearly shows the potential of single-family houses to reinforce resilience for a duration ranging from seconds to several hours.