Supplying the Nordic electrification - Impact of local conditions

Licentiatavhandling, 2026

The demand for electricity in the Nordic countries is expected to increase substantially over the coming decades, driven primarily by the electrification of the industrial and transport sectors. This thesis analyzes the transformation of the energy system, with a particular focus on how local conditions, such as weather patterns, demand magnitude and flexibility, and transmission grid characteristics shape cost-optimal electrification pathways.

The thesis consists of three papers, each addressing a distinct aspect of Nordic electrification. Paper I compares the cost-effective electrification strategies for six cities in Sweden, applying a previously developed linear optimization model for an urban energy system. Here, it is demonstrated that local city-specific characteristics significantly affect optimal system configurations only when electricity import capacity is stringently constrained. Under less-restrictive conditions, all cities exhibit heavy reliance on power-to-heat in district heating systems and substantial electricity imports. Paper II expands the scope to the Nordic region by examining the spatial optimization of renewable electricity generation using a newly developed model (EHUB Nordic) that represents the entire synchronous Nordic power system. With a highly spatially resolved geographic scope and a detailed representation of the transmission grid, this model enables analyses of how grid constraints and other local characteristics influence the electrification outcomes in the Nordic context. The results show that proximity to the demand for electricity strongly influences siting decisions for solar PV and onshore wind plants, whereas offshore wind deployment is primarily driven by the need for high annual production volumes to offset the higher capital costs. Paper III evaluates the system value of increasing transmission capacity through dynamic line rating (DLR). The findings indicate that, compared to static line rating, DLR enables greater solar PV integration and allows flexible hydropower to substitute for gas turbines by alleviating transmission bottlenecks. The value of DLR is also shown to depend strongly on geographic characteristics, including long transmission lines, low ambient temperatures, and the availability of high-quality wind sites in proximity to demand centers.

Overall, this work highlights the critical roles of local geographic and system-specific conditions in shaping cost-optimal outcomes from energy system modeling. Especially, four local characteristics emerge as particularly influential in shaping electrification outcomes in the Nordic region: transmission grid properties, weather conditions, the spatial distribution of electricity demand, and land availability. Effectively leveraging these local characteristics, through for example strategic siting of generation plants, urban sector coupling, and enhanced grid utilization, will be highly valuable when addressing the challenges and opportunities linked to the coming age of electrification in the Nordic region.