Strategies for large-scale deployment of low-emissions hydrogen for CO2 abatement in petrochemical clusters

Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2026

Substantial amounts of low-emissions hydrogen are required to enable CO2 emissions reduction and circularity in the petrochemical sector. However, large-scale deployment remains constrained by the persistent cost gap with fossil-derived hydrogen, the limited availability of low-cost renewable electricity and critical infrastructure, as well as the distinct operational constraints of hydrogen production technologies. This work addresses these barriers through technology diversification and integration of hydrogen production technologies. An integrated hydrogen production system is introduced that combines autothermal reforming with carbon capture and storage (ATR-CCS), solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC), and ammonia cracking (AC). A modeling framework is developed, centered on a mixed-integer linear programming model with a 1-year hourly resolution to optimize the technology mix and system operation while accounting for site-specific constraints and varying price conditions. The framework is demonstrated through a case study of a steam cracker plant, where integration provides opportunities to reduce hydrogen production costs via exports of displaced fuel gases. The results demonstrate how integrating multiple hydrogen production technologies reduces production costs while enhancing operational flexibility and system redundancy, compared with standalone systems. Scenario analysis highlights the importance of hedging against price uncertainty by deploying comparable or excess capacities across technologies to enable flexible operation. Based on these findings, a stepwise deployment strategy is proposed, outlining the timely implementation of individual technologies aligned with projected emissions allowance prices. The developed framework can be adapted to other clusters to identify cost-optimal, site-specific configurations for various market conditions, and thereby derive robust deployment strategies for scaling up low-emissions hydrogen production.