Effect of climate change on energy consumption in buildings

Paper i proceeding, 2008

Scenarios for predicting future climate changes build on emission scenarios and climate model simulations. The uncertainties regarding future growth in population and economic development make it impossible to rely on any simplified forecasts for the future. Universal in most climate change scenarios for the 21st century is the increase of the global mean temperature. By the end of the century the increase may be 1.8-4.0 oC depending on the chosen emission scenario. This paper demonstrates one future climate scenario for Sweden and discusses: firstly, weather design conditions in terms of deviations from presently used climatic loads for buildings’ energy design and, secondly, possible results on energy consumption in buildings in relation to climate change scenarios. Evaluation of the method is performed by testing it on a hindcast simulation covering the last decades. The results presented here originate from the recently started research project on sustainability of the Swedish built environment towards climate changes. The project is conducted at Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, in cooperation with the climate research unit Rossby Centre of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.