Climate economics support for the UN climate targets
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2020
Under the UN Paris Agreement, countries committed to limiting global warming to well below 2 °C and to actively pursue a 1.5 °C limit. Yet, according to the 2018 Economics Nobel laureate William Nordhaus, these targets are economically suboptimal or unattainable and the world community should aim for 3.5 °C in 2100 instead. Here, we show that the UN climate targets may be optimal even in the Dynamic Integrated Climate–Economy (DICE) integrated assessment model, when appropriately updated. Changes to DICE include more accurate calibration of the carbon cycle and energy balance model, and updated climate damage estimates. To determine economically ‘optimal’ climate policy paths, we use the range of expert views on the ethics of intergenerational welfare. When updates from climate science and economics are considered jointly, we find that around three-quarters (or one-third) of expert views on intergenerational welfare translate into economically optimal climate policy paths that are consistent with the 2 °C (or 1.5 °C) target.
Författare
Martin C. Hänsel
Leibniz-Gemeinschaft
Moritz A. Drupp
Münchener Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wirtschaftswissenschaft - CESifo GmbH
Universität Hamburg
Daniel Johansson
Chalmers, Rymd-, geo- och miljövetenskap, Fysisk resursteori
Frikk Nesje
Universitetet i Oslo
Universität Heidelberg
Christian Azar
Chalmers, Rymd-, geo- och miljövetenskap, Fysisk resursteori
Mark C. Freeman
University of York
Ben Groom
London School of Economics and Political Science
University of Exeter
Thomas Sterner
Göteborgs universitet
Nature Climate Change
1758-678X (ISSN) 1758-6798 (eISSN)
Vol. 10 8 781-789Ämneskategorier
Energisystem
Naturgeografi
Klimatforskning
DOI
10.1038/s41558-020-0833-x