Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks
Journal article, 2017

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating.

Bayesian updating


Shipwreck risk assessment

Expert elicitation



Hanna Landquist

Maritime Studies

Jenny Norrman

Chalmers, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Geology and Geotechnics

Andreas Lindhe

Chalmers, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Geology and Geotechnics

Tommy Norberg

Chalmers, Mathematical Sciences

University of Gothenburg

Ida-Maja Hassellöv

Maritime Studies

Fredrik Lindgren

Maritime Studies

Lars Rosen

Chalmers, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Geology and Geotechnics

Marine Pollution Bulletin

0025-326X (ISSN) 1879-3363 (eISSN)

Vol. 125 1-2 399-415

Driving Forces

Sustainable development

Innovation and entrepreneurship

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Other Social Sciences

Earth and Related Environmental Sciences





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