Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2017

© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating.

Bayesian updating


Shipwreck risk assessment

Expert elicitation



Hanna Landquist

Maritima studier

Jenny Norrman

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Andreas Lindhe

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Tommy Norberg

Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper

Göteborgs universitet

Ida-Maja Hassellöv

Maritima studier

Fredrik Lindgren

Maritima studier

Lars Rosen

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Marine Pollution Bulletin

0025-326X (ISSN)

Vol. 125 1-2 399-415


Hållbar utveckling

Innovation och entreprenörskap




Annan samhällsvetenskap

Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap