Projected changes of the emission and transport of organic pollutants and metals from shipping in European seas 2018–2050
Journal article, 2025
The ChemicalDrift model is applied to predict concentrations of metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emitted from shipping in European seas in 2050, compared to 2018. Sources include antifouling paints (AFPs), discharge water from scrubbers and atmospheric deposition. The fate of pollutants in the marine environment is presented, highlighting the effect of degradation and volatilization, with seasonal and regional differences. A simplified impact assessment is outlined, where predicted environmental concentrations of individual chemicals and whole effluent concentrations of scrubber discharge water are compared to predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) or lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC). The 2018 assessment shows scrubber effluent concentrations exceeding LOEC in Baltic and North Sea coastal regions. By 2050, assuming high use of scrubbers, elevated concentrations may extend to all European seas. For AFPs, assuming continued use of primarily copper-based paints, the highest copper concentrations are projected in 2050 for North Sea ports and coasts, potentially exceeding PNECs.
Shipping emissions
Metals
Scrubbers
Impact assessment
PAHs
Author
Manuel Aghito
University of Bergen
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
E. Majamäki
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)
Risto Hänninen
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)
Anna Lunde Hermansson
Transport, Energy and Environment
Ida-Maja Hassellöv
Transport, Energy and Environment
Erik Ytreberg
Transport, Energy and Environment
Vassilis Kolovoyiannis
University of the Aegean
V. Zervakis
University of the Aegean
Maria E. Granberg
University of Gothenburg
Jana Moldanova
IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute
Knut Frode Dagestad
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Øyvind Breivik
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
University of Bergen
L. R. Hole
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
J. P. Jalkanen
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)
Marine Pollution Bulletin
0025-326X (ISSN) 1879-3363 (eISSN)
Vol. 211 117351Evaluation, control and Mitigation of the EnviRonmental impacts of shippinG Emissions (EMERGE)
European Commission (EC) (EC/H2020/874990), 2020-02-01 -- 2024-01-31.
Subject Categories (SSIF 2011)
Environmental Sciences
DOI
10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117351
PubMed
39674034