Projected changes of the emission and transport of organic pollutants and metals from shipping in European seas 2018–2050
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2025
The ChemicalDrift model is applied to predict concentrations of metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emitted from shipping in European seas in 2050, compared to 2018. Sources include antifouling paints (AFPs), discharge water from scrubbers and atmospheric deposition. The fate of pollutants in the marine environment is presented, highlighting the effect of degradation and volatilization, with seasonal and regional differences. A simplified impact assessment is outlined, where predicted environmental concentrations of individual chemicals and whole effluent concentrations of scrubber discharge water are compared to predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) or lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC). The 2018 assessment shows scrubber effluent concentrations exceeding LOEC in Baltic and North Sea coastal regions. By 2050, assuming high use of scrubbers, elevated concentrations may extend to all European seas. For AFPs, assuming continued use of primarily copper-based paints, the highest copper concentrations are projected in 2050 for North Sea ports and coasts, potentially exceeding PNECs.
Metals
Impact assessment
Shipping emissions
Scrubbers
PAHs
Författare
Manuel Aghito
Universitetet i Bergen
Meteorologisk institutt
E. Majamäki
Finnish Meteorological Institute
Risto Hänninen
Finnish Meteorological Institute
Anna Lunde Hermansson
Transport, energi och miljö
Ida-Maja Hassellöv
Transport, energi och miljö
Erik Ytreberg
Transport, energi och miljö
Vassilis Kolovoyiannis
Panepistimion Aegaeou
V. Zervakis
Panepistimion Aegaeou
Maria E. Granberg
Göteborgs universitet
Jana Moldanova
Swed
Knut Frode Dagestad
Meteorologisk institutt
Øyvind Breivik
Universitetet i Bergen
Meteorologisk institutt
L. R. Hole
Meteorologisk institutt
J. P. Jalkanen
Finnish Meteorological Institute
Marine Pollution Bulletin
0025-326X (ISSN) 1879-3363 (eISSN)
Vol. 211 117351Evaluation, control and Mitigation of the EnviRonmental impacts of shippinG Emissions (EMERGE)
Europeiska kommissionen (EU) (EC/H2020/874990), 2020-02-01 -- 2024-01-31.
Ämneskategorier (SSIF 2011)
Miljövetenskap
DOI
10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.117351
PubMed
39674034