Understanding policy effort for low-carbon energy transitions: Insights from coal power phase-out and wind power expansion

Doctoral thesis, 2025

Globally decarbonising electricity generation by mid-century is one of the most urgent climate change mitigation measures. There are frequent calls for governments to increase efforts for such decarbonisation, but – what type, and what level, of policy effort is required across contexts and over time? This thesis conceptualises and measures three elements of policy effort, and traces their interactions: policy commitments, policy actions, and energy transitions outcomes in line with climate change mitigation targets. To this end, the thesis mobilises empirical evidence on policy effort for two ongoing transitions processes: coal power phase-out, and wind power expansion. The insights on the geographical and temporal changes in policy effort for coal phase-out and wind expansion enable this thesis to identify policy effort as a proxy for the strength and type of socio-political barriers to technology change. More specifically, this thesis finds that policy effort does not necessarily decline as low-carbon technologies become economically competitive, but rather that new barriers tend to emerge as wind power grows, and coal power becomes destabilized. This thesis also finds that policy effort for coal power phase-out tends to increase in contexts with large and young power plant fleets, indicating comparatively high socio-political barriers. Extrapolating from these empirically observed regularities of policy-technology interactions, this thesis illustrates policy effort to overcome barriers to projected coal phase-out pathways, and targeted offshore wind growth. Overall, its findings highlight that sustained and adaptive policy sequences; as well as concerted policy effort and international cooperation are likely required to enable energy transitions in line with climate change mitigation objectives.