Gut microbiome composition and functional potential associate with incident type 2 diabetes in 4,685 adults from a Swedish prospective cohort
Journal article, 2026
Cross-sectional studies link gut microbiome alterations to type 2 diabetes (T2D), but prospective evidence remains limited. We aim to identify taxonomic and functional features associated with future T2D risk. We analyze shotgun metagenomic data from 4,685 participants (mean age, 73.9 years; 49.0% women) in the Swedish SIMPLER cohort, followed for a median 5.3 years, during which 383 developed T2D. Six species are associated with increased T2D risk: Desulfovibrio piger, Alistipes communis, Alistipes finegoldii, Akkermansia muciniphila, Ruminococcus gnavus, and GGB3614_SGB4886 (Lachnospiraceae), while three are protective: Erysipelotrichaceae bacterium, Coprococcus catus, and Clostridia unclassified SGB6317. We observe context-specific associations, including a dietary fiber-modified effect for A. muciniphilaindicative of diet-dependent patterns. Three gut metabolic modules are associated with incident T2D: asparagine degradation (higher risk), mannose degradation, and the non-oxidative pentose phosphate pathway (lower risk). These prospective findings offer insights into T2D etiology and may support microbiome-informed strategies for risk prediction and prevention.
gut microbiome microbial functional potential shotgun sequencing prospective cohort study machine learning incident type 2 diabetes
Author
Gael Toubon
Karolinska Institutet
Chalmers, Life Sciences, Food and Nutrition Science
Fredrik Boulund
Karolinska Institutet
Cecilia Martinez Escobedo
Chalmers, Life Sciences, Food and Nutrition Science
Carl Brunius
Chalmers, Life Sciences, Food and Nutrition Science
Lars Engstrand
Karolinska Institutet
Susanna Larsson
Uppsala University
Karolinska Institutet
Elise Nordin
Chalmers, Life Sciences, Food and Nutrition Science
Ina Schuppe-Koistinen
Karolinska Institutet
Alicja Wolk
Karolinska Institutet
Clemens Wittenbecher
Chalmers, Life Sciences, Food and Nutrition Science
Rikard Landberg
Chalmers, Life Sciences, Food and Nutrition Science
Cell Reports Medicine
26663791 (eISSN)
Vol. 7 6 102835Precision Prevention of Cardiometabolic Diseases Through Personalized Nutrition Guided by Metabolite Biomarker Signatures
Swedish Research Council (VR) (2022-00924), 2023-01-01 -- 2025-12-31.
Innovative pulse and cereal-based food fermentations for human health and sustainable diets (HealthFerm )
European Commission (EC) (101060247), 2022-09-01 -- 2026-08-31.
Subject Categories (SSIF 2025)
Endocrinology and Diabetes
DOI
10.1016/j.xcrm.2026.102835
PubMed
42202790
Related datasets
Gut Microbiome Composition and Functional Potential Associate with Incident Type 2 Diabetes in 4,685 Adults from a Swedish Prospective Cohort [dataset]
URI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19454951