Transport biofuels in global energy–economy modelling – a review of comprehensive energy systems assessment approaches
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2017

The high oil dependence and the growth of energy use in the transport sector have increased the interest in alternative nonfossil fuels as a measure to mitigate climate change and improve energy security. More ambitious energy and environmental targets and larger use of nonfossil energy in the transport sector increase energy–transport interactions and system effects over sector boundaries. While the stationary energy sector (e.g., electricity and heat generation) and the transport sector earlier to large degree could be considered as separate systems with limited interaction, integrated analysis approaches and assessments of energy–transport interactions now grow in importance. In recent years, the scientific literature has presented an increasing number of global energy–economy future studies based on systems modelling treating the transport sector as an integral part of the overall energy system and/or economy. Many of these studies provide important insights regarding transport biofuels. To clarify similarities and differences in approaches and results, the present work reviews studies on transport biofuels in global energy–economy modelling and investigates what future role comprehensive global energy–economy modelling studies portray for transport biofuels in terms of their potential and competitiveness. The results vary widely between the studies, but the resulting transport biofuel market shares are mainly below 40% during the entire time periods analysed. Some of the reviewed studies show higher transport biofuel market shares in the medium (15–30 years) than in the long term (above 30 years), and, in the long-term models, at the end of the modelling horizon, transport biofuels are often substituted by electric and hydrogen cars.

energy-transport interactions

global energy-economy modelling

transport sector

comprehensive energy systems assessment approaches

transport biofuels

transport biofuel market shares

futures

Författare

Erik Ahlgren

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Energiteknik

Martin Börjesson

IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet AB

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Energiteknik

Maria Grahn

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Fysisk resursteori

GCB Bioenergy

1757-1693 (ISSN) 1757-1707 (eISSN)

Vol. 9 7 1168-1180

Drivkrafter

Hållbar utveckling

Styrkeområden

Transport

Energi

Ämneskategorier

Övrig annan samhällsvetenskap

DOI

10.1111/gcbb.12431