Multi - model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime
Övrigt, 2012

This paper presents a modeling comparison project on how the 2°C climate target could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. The analysis uses a framework that harmonizes baseline developments and soft-links seven national and global models being either economy wide (CGE models) or energy system models. The analysis is based on a global greenhouse gas emission pathway that aims at a radiative forcing of 2.9 W/m2 in 2100 and with a policy regime based on convergence of per capita CO2 emissions with emissions trading. Economic and energy implications for China and India vary across models. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. Reliance on Coal without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is significantly reduced in most models, while CCS is a central abatement technology in energy system models, as is renewable and nuclear energy. Concerning economic impacts China bears in general a higher cost than India, as China benefits less from emissions trading. Costs are also affected by changes in fossil fuel prices, currency appreciation from capital inflow from carbon trading and timing of emission reductions.

Climate policy




Daniel Johansson

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Fysisk resursteori

Paul Lucas

Matthias Weitzel

Erik Ahlgren

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Energiteknik

A.B Bazaz

Wenying Chen

Michel G.J. den Elzen

Joydeep Ghosh

Maria Grahn

Chalmers, Energi och miljö, Fysisk resursteori

Qiao - Mei Liang

Sonja Peterson

Basanta K. Pradhan

Bas J. van Ruijven

P.R. Shukla

Detlef P. van Vuuren

Yi - Ming Wei


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