A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2014

Shipwrecks on the sea floor around the world may contain hazardous substances that can cause harm to the marine environment. Today there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shipwrecks, and thus there is poor support for decision-making on prioritization of mitigation measures. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for quantitative risk estimation of potentially polluting shipwrecks, and in particular an estimation of the annual probability of hazardous substance discharge. The assessment of the probability of discharge is performed using fault tree analysis, facilitating quantification of the probability with respect to a set of identified hazardous events. This approach enables a structured assessment providing transparent uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The model facilitates quantification of risk, quantification of the uncertainties in the risk calculation and identification of parameters to be investigated further in order to obtain a more reliable risk calculation.

Fault tree analysis

Risk assessment

Shipwreck

Oil

Författare

Hanna Landquist

Chalmers, Sjöfart och marin teknik, Maritime Operations

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Lars Rosen

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Andreas Lindhe

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Tommy Norberg

Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik

Göteborgs universitet

Ida-Maja Hassellöv

Chalmers, Sjöfart och marin teknik, Maritime Operations

Fredrik Lindgren

Chalmers, Sjöfart och marin teknik, Maritime Operations

Ingela Dahllöf

Göteborgs universitet

Marine Pollution Bulletin

0025-326X (ISSN)

Vol. 88 1-2 239-248

Ämneskategorier

Miljövetenskap

DOI

10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.08.037