Value of information analysis in rock engineering: a case study of a tunnel project in Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2015

Geoengineering prognoses are often based on data from a limited number of investigations of soil and rock mass. There is generally a desire to reduce the uncertainty in the prognoses while minimising the investigation costs. Value of Information Analysis (VOIA) is a support for decisions regarding investigation strategies and the aim of this paper is to present methodology for VOIA that takes into account four decision alternatives where the input data could be provided by experts. The methodology will be applied in a case study where the value of information related to an investigation borehole will be calculated. The results indicate that the value of information of the borehole is low compared with the realisation costs of the investigation. It was found that models for VOIA in underground construction projects are complex but that the analysis can be simplified with extensive use of expert knowledge and calculations of the value of perfect information as a benchmark for investigation strategies.

decision analyses

probabilistic site characterization and modelling

construction cost

Bayesian methods

Författare

Miriam Zetterlund

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Tommy Norberg

Göteborgs universitet

Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik

Lars O Ericsson

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Jenny Norrman

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Lars Rosen

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Georisk

1749-9518 (ISSN)

Vol. 9 1 9-24

Styrkeområden

Building Futures

Ämneskategorier

Geoteknik

Infrastrukturteknik

DOI

10.1080/17499518.2014.1001401