Cost-effective implementation of the Paris Agreement using flexible greenhouse gas metrics
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2021

Greenhouse gas (GHG) metrics, that is, conversion factors to evaluate the emissions of non-CO 2 GHGs on a common scale with CO 2 , serve crucial functions in the implementation of the Paris Agreement. While different metrics have been proposed, their economic cost-effectiveness has not been investigated under a range of pathways, including those substantially overshooting the temperature targets. Here, we show that cost-effective metrics for methane that minimize the overall mitigation costs are time-dependent, primarily determined by the pathway, and strongly influenced by temperature overshoot. Parties to the Paris Agreement have already adopted the conventional GWP100 (100-year global warming potential), which is shown to be a good approximation of cost-effective metrics for the coming decades. In the longer term, however, we suggest that parties consider adapting the choice of common metrics to the future pathway as it unfolds, as part of the recurring global stocktake, if global cost-effectiveness is a key consideration.


Katsumasa Tanaka

National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan

Université Paris-Saclay

Sorbonne Université

Olivier Boucher

Sorbonne Université

Philippe Ciais

Université Paris-Saclay

Daniel Johansson

Chalmers, Rymd-, geo- och miljövetenskap, Fysisk resursteori

Johannes Morfeldt

Chalmers, Rymd-, geo- och miljövetenskap, Fysisk resursteori

Science advances

2375-2548 (eISSN)

Vol. 7 22 eabf9020

På väg mot ett klimatneutralt långväga resande 2045 - teknik, resmönster, höghöjdseffekter

VINNOVA (2019-03233), 2019-11-05 -- 2023-06-30.


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DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abf9020

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