Analysis of uncertainties in the prediction of ships’ fuel consumption – from early design to operation conditions
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2018

This investigation presents an approach that contributes to a better understanding of achievable accuracy of fuel consumption predictions of ships and provides an example of how a thorough uncertainty analysis of prediction models can be performed. A generic ship energy systems model is used for the fuel consumption prediction of two reference ships: a RoRo ship and a tanker. The study presents how method and design uncertainties can be categorized and handled in four different phases of a ship’s life – from early design to ship operation. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out for two conditions (calm water and operation at sea) to calculate the mean (expected value) and uncertainty (standard deviation) of the fuel consumption. The results show that the uncertainty in the fuel consumption prediction in a very early phase of the design process is approximately 12%, whereas at a very late phase, it reduces to less than 4%. Finally, the simulation model and the approach to predict the fuel consumption presented in the study are applied to a real ship during operation conditions to demonstrate its features for a real case.

ship design

ship operation

Fuel consumption

Monte Carlo simulation

uncertainty analysis

ship energy efficiency


Fabian Tillig

Chalmers, Mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Marin teknik

Jonas Ringsberg

Chalmers, Mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Marin teknik

Wengang Mao

Chalmers, Mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Marin teknik

Bengt Ramne

Chalmers, Mekanik och maritima vetenskaper, Marin teknik

Ships and Offshore Structures

1744-5302 (ISSN) 1754-212X (eISSN)

Vol. 13 13-24

ShipCLEAN - Energieffektivare sjötransporter genom optimering av kopplade transportlogistik- och energisystemanalyser

Energimyndigheten (44454-1), 2017-09-01 -- 2019-12-31.

Chalmers styrkeområde Transport – finansiering 2017

Chalmers, 2017-01-01 -- 2017-12-31.


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Marin teknik


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