Risk Mapping of Groundwater-Drawdown-Induced Land Subsidence in Heterogeneous Soils on Large Areas
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2019

Groundwater leakage into subsurface constructions can cause reduction of pore pressure and subsidence in clay deposits, even at large distances from the location of the construction. The potential cost of damage is substantial, particularly in urban areas. The large-scale process also implies heterogeneous soil conditions that cannot be described in complete detail, which causes a need for estimating uncertainty of subsidence with probabilistic methods. In this study, the risk for subsidence is estimated by coupling two probabilistic models, a geostatistics-based soil stratification model with a subsidence model. Statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties are inputs into the models. The results include spatially explicit probabilistic estimates of subsidence magnitude and sensitivities of included model parameters. From these, areas with significant risk for subsidence are distinguished from low-risk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modeling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk-reducing measures, and identification of the need for further investigations and monitoring are demonstrated with a case study of a planned tunnel in Stockholm.

probabilistic subsidence model

Groundwater-drawdown-induced subsidence

Författare

Jonas Sundell

COWI A/S

Chalmers, Arkitektur och samhällsbyggnadsteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Ezra Haaf

Göteborgs universitet

COWI A/S

Tommy Norberg

Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper

Göteborgs universitet

Claes Alén

Chalmers, Arkitektur och samhällsbyggnadsteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Mats Karlsson

Chalmers, Arkitektur och samhällsbyggnadsteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Lars Rosen

Chalmers, Arkitektur och samhällsbyggnadsteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

Risk Analysis

0272-4332 (ISSN) 1539-6924 (eISSN)

Vol. 39 1 105-124

Styrkeområden

Building Futures (2010-2018)

Ämneskategorier

Geoteknik

Vattenteknik

Geologi

DOI

10.1111/risa.12890

PubMed

29084353

Mer information

Senast uppdaterat

2023-09-25