Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets
Artikel i vetenskaplig tidskrift, 2011

Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction.

Risk reduction

Cost-effectiveness

Water safety plan

Fault tree analysis

Decision support

Författare

Andreas Lindhe

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

DRICKS Ramprogrammet för dricksvattenforskning vid Chalmers

Lars Rosen

FRIST kompetenscentrum

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Geologi och geoteknik

DRICKS Ramprogrammet för dricksvattenforskning vid Chalmers

Tommy Norberg

Chalmers, Matematiska vetenskaper, matematisk statistik

DRICKS Ramprogrammet för dricksvattenforskning vid Chalmers

Göteborgs universitet

Olof Bergstedt

DRICKS Ramprogrammet för dricksvattenforskning vid Chalmers

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Vatten Miljö Teknik

Thomas Pettersson

Chalmers, Bygg- och miljöteknik, Vatten Miljö Teknik

DRICKS Ramprogrammet för dricksvattenforskning vid Chalmers

Water Research

0043-1354 (ISSN)

Vol. 45 1 241-253

Drivkrafter

Hållbar utveckling

Styrkeområden

Building Futures

Ämneskategorier

Samhällsbyggnadsteknik

DOI

10.1016/j.watres.2010.07.048

PubMed

20943244